Taliban take-over Afghanistan

[avanfurwet]

What do you want your fiat currency to be underwritten by? Every asset (e.g. gold, real estate, bitcoin, whatever) only has value because enough people agree it has value.

[Pineapples Studio]

First of all, you just called Bitcoin an asset with a straight face. I’m just gonna point that out.

Second of all, “real” assets derive value from their potential for use. Real estate has value because it can be farmed, developed, built out, etc. and the same is true for most tangible assets. Gold is an interesting case in that it derives its value from its rarity, but at least that’s still something. It isn’t valuable purely because we all agree it has value; it’s valuable as a result of an outside factor. Fiat currency lacks the outside factor. That system doesn’t work because it has no stability.

[avanfurwet]

First of all, you just called Bitcoin an asset with a straight face. I’m just gonna point that out.

Second of all, “real” assets derive value from their potential for use. Real estate has value because it can be farmed, developed, built out, etc. and the same is true for most tangible assets. Gold is an interesting case in that it derives its value from its rarity, but at least that’s still something. It isn’t valuable purely because we all agree it has value; it’s valuable as a result of an outside factor. Fiat currency lacks the outside factor. That system doesn’t work because it has no stability.

Thankfully, I'm not an economist. So all this is my uneducated opinion:

Fiat currencies do have an outside factor.

They are backed by people's faith in the economies and political stability of the nations or federations which issue them.
That is why most people still believe the US dollar has value, but lost faith in Afghanistan, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and many other nations before them.

Bitcoin has a "value" for exactly as long as enough people believe it has enough value to want to exchange other goods or labour for it.

The value of Bitcoin , or gold, derives from scarcity combined with perceived utility.
Scarcity alone will not save all the rare species of plants and animals which we are driving to extinction, because people don't care.
They don't perceive any utility in nature so they keep destroying it in pursuit of things they do value.
(Also, people listen to politicians who tell them soothing lies that they want to hear).

People value gold largely because it has been a traditional store of value with well established markets, and people have faith that this will continue.

People value bitcoin because it's massively volatile and they want to speculate in hope of getting rich quick.
They treat Bitcoin as a game of pass-the-parcel or hot-potato and hope not to be left holding the thing when the music stops.

Even real estate can lose most or all of it's "value" if it loses it's perceived utility.
People will no longer want it if it becomes adversely affected by natural or man-made disasters, such as earthquakes, rising sea levels, rising temperatures, etc.
Land can become part of a war zone, or affected by political or economic turmoil.
Not many people wanted to buy farmland in the dustbowl of the USA during the Great Depression.
Not much demand for real estate in Afghanistan right now unless you're already in the heroin or terrorism business.

[Pineapples Studio]

I mean, sure. You’re not wrong about any of that, but people’s faith in the strength or stability of the world economy is not a tangible asset and not much to value a currency against. My point is that nobody has any control of the currency. Inflation is inevitable with any fiat currency since there is nothing tangible underneath it. You’re correct that gold only has value because of its scarcity, but that’s not really comparable to Bitcoin because gold 1) is a natural element, not a man-made construct, which we are still unable to synthesize in any significant quantifies (and it does have some actual real-world applications as well); and 2) is a tangible good which you can touch, store, and transport unlike Bitcoin which is just a big fugazi get-rich-quick scheme which has no widespread adoption as a functional currency, isn’t recognized as a currency by most international organizations, and doesn’t actually scale even if someone decided to make it a functional currency.

[avanfurwet]

I don't think bitcoin can function as a "currency" today because people mostly buy it to hold and trade on as a speculative instrument, so they don't spend it.

I would argue that gold has a value mostly because of its perceived utility as a store of value, not because of scarcity.

Scarcity just prevents people conjuring more of it out of thin air (like, say, printing US Dollars).

I would also argue that being natural, or tangible, are not really relevant to peoples' perceived value of things.
People invest money to buy education, and to buy influence, which are intangibles but can be bartered. People also buy and "own" NFTs.

Nowadays first world economies function without so much use for tangible cash money. Money has become just an accounting entry blipped between electronic bank accounts at the press of a key or the swipe of a card. Governments love this because they can track and tax us, and because they can "haircut" or wipe out our savings any time they feel like devaluing. Which is why people try to diversify into other "assets" as stores of "value" which can be bartered or exchanged. Which brings me back full circle to arguing that bitcoin has a "value" so long as people are prepared to exchange stuff for bitcoin.

Anyway, the Taliban will probably ban the internet, along with music and television, in Afghanistan as the country is catapulted back to the dark ages. So the poor Afghans will be left with traditional stores of value like gold and gemstones as alternatives to the local paper currency.

[Iddaoeeok]

Anyway, withdrawal or not, I don't expect it'll be too long till the Afghan skies are full of US drones off to blow wedding parties to pieces.

I hate to say I told you so but...

[netzerkaiser]

Anyway, withdrawal or not, I don't expect it'll be too long till the Afghan skies are full of US drones off to blow wedding parties to pieces.

I hate to say I told you so but...

This is such a superb & poignant post. Imagine having to live like that, with that ontological uncertainty & helpless paranoia that you could be picked off any time.

Apparently morale / mental health situation of drone operators in US is appalling.

[Pineapples Studio]

Biden is a pussy and just wants to look like he’s doing something for the sake of his re-election campaign. He doesn’t really care how this impacts Afghanistan and, like every president before him, he’s just in it for his own sake.

Not that this kind of ”leadership” is exclusive to the United States.

[netzerkaiser]

Biden is a pussy and just wants to look like he’s doing something for the sake of his re-election campaign. He doesn’t really care how this impacts Afghanistan and, like every president before him, he’s just in it for his own sake.

Not that this kind of ”leadership” is exclusive to the United States.

Not that this kind of ”leadership” is exclusive to the United States.[/quote]

Absolutely. No one is innocent. They're all shitting themselves now, backed hero Joe against narcissict Trump... there was an honesty about Trump, despite his bufoonery, he was / is real deal.

[Pineapples Studio]

True, but that’s not necessarily virtuous of him. Just means he didn’t try to pretend that he wasn’t a complete asshole.

[netzerkaiser]

True, but that’s not necessarily virtuous of him. Just means he didn’t try to pretend that he wasn’t a complete asshole.

100% Brother + congrats on latest movie

[Starrio]

Every single day we stay is more people risking their lives, we need to leave and never come back, we never should have been in there in the first place, any day this gets delayed the more people will die just like they had die during the last 20 years. These are 20 years old dying for no reason at all, they were babies during 9/11, they should not be dying for those ridiculous decisions of staying longer for a better exit, there is no better exit, there never was, not to mention all the innocent people in Afghanistan suffering the consequences too. Taking off was the best decision, but it should have been done 20 years ago. There is no way to pull out without causing this situation. The situation is inevitable, and the more we stay the more people will die. This has always been a life and death situation, and it doesn't matter at what point you pull out during those 20 years, the result will be the same, delaying it one more is just more lives at risk.

[avanfurwet]

The western powers (mostly USA) have already left town, so the whole clusterfuck has now moved into another phase, where the escalating sufferings of the poor trapped Afghan people will take centre stage.

I agree we should never have been there trying to impose our way of life, but the manner of our departure is an embarrassing disgrace.

The departure of the western powers was supposed to be peaceful and orderly, leaving in charge the pretence of a competent local government.

I think our western governments predicted that the Afghan government would fail and the country would descend into civil war. But our politicians cynically calculated that they could put some clear water between our exit and the inevitable collapse, so they could blame the Afghans, saying they were left in good order and then self-destructed.

But western governments catastrophically miscalculated just how quickly their corrupt puppet Afghan administration and it's "army" would fold.

So we've witnessed a disorderly scramble for the exits, and many good Afghan people who tried to build a better country for their children are now left behind to be hunted and murdered by medieval thugs who are now armed to the teeth with USA military hardware.

IMO the only people to come out of this debacle with any credit are our military servicemen and women in country who were dropped in the shit as usual and did a great job as usual. Lions led by donkeys.

[Starrio]

The departure of the western powers was supposed to be peaceful and orderly, leaving in charge the pretence of a competent local government.

This is impossible to do, and every delay will just make it worst because it will equal more deaths.

We shouldn't have been there in the first place and the result of leaving will be exactly as we see right now no matter how many more trillions are used.

Any day there is more people dying. Our people and their people too.

I was honestly surprised Biden did something good, i don't really expect much from traditional politicians, so this is bizarre to say the least.

It's funny because every time the government does something stupid you see the media like MSNBC and CCN praising them.

But now that he finally did something good CNN and MSNBC have been bashing it day and night, but the people knows this was a good decision, in fact it is the only option to prevent more deaths.

One more day means a lot of risk, so the sooner the better.

People have learned. I remember Obama was trying to send us to Syria too, but people quickly reacted and we prevented that, but with Afghanistan we were already there.

[netzerkaiser]

The western powers (mostly USA) have already left town, so the whole clusterfuck has now moved into another phase, where the escalating sufferings of the poor trapped Afghan people will take centre stage.

I agree we should never have been there trying to impose our way of life, but the manner of our departure is an embarrassing disgrace.

The departure of the western powers was supposed to be peaceful and orderly, leaving in charge the pretence of a competent local government.

I think our western governments predicted that the Afghan government would fail and the country would descend into civil war. But our politicians cynically calculated that they could put some clear water between our exit and the inevitable collapse, so they could blame the Afghans, saying they were left in good order and then self-destructed.

But western governments catastrophically miscalculated just how quickly their corrupt puppet Afghan administration and it's "army" would fold.

So we've witnessed a disorderly scramble for the exits, and many good Afghan people who tried to build a better country for their children are now left behind to be hunted and murdered by medieval thugs who are now armed to the teeth with USA military hardware.

IMO the only people to come out of this debacle with any credit are our military servicemen and women in country who were dropped in the shit as usual and did a great job as usual. Lions led by donkeys.

Great post. Another thing: So many of these Afghan men are very good looking, it can't be denied. Therefore, the Afghan women must be gorgeous too. I knew Persian / Iranian ladies, & Armenian ladies mostly in Sweden when I lived there, & they were secular / Christian / Zoroastarian in background, so beautiful, chestnut hair, blue eyes... we don't get see much of that.

It gets confused partly because the Turks aren't the original people of Anatolia, I could be wrong, but I think they took over the place around 1200 AD & they were from Mongolia / Khazakastan etc in origin. Entirely different look.

Again, I could be wrong.

[Pineapples Studio]

The departure of the western powers was supposed to be peaceful and orderly, leaving in charge the pretence of a competent local government.

This is impossible to do, and every delay will just make it worst because it will equal more deaths.

…

People have learned. I remember Obama was trying to send us to Syria too, but people quickly reacted and we prevented that, but with Afghanistan we were already there.

Agreed with Starrio’s post above, and I have quoted the two most salient points for emphasis.

The whole point is that our goals in Afghanistan were completely unattainable from the very beginning. There was no scenario in which this was going to end well for anyone. The idea of leaving peacefully with a competent local banana republic in charge was an absolute joke and a totally unrealistic pipe dream.

We fucked up big time. We spent twenty years and trillions of dollars to turn a messy humanitarian crisis into an even messier, and totally out-of-control, local power vacuum.